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OECD Environment Working Papers

This series is designed to make available to a wider readership selected studies on environmental issues prepared for use within the OECD. Authorship is usually collective, but principal authors are named. The papers are generally available only in their original language English or French with a summary in the other if available.

English

An Economic Projection to 2050: The OECD "ENV-Linkages" Model Baseline

This document describes economic baseline projections to 2050 for several world regions. It describes how socio-economic drivers are used to create a consistent projection of economic activity for the coming decades, applying the general framework of “conditional convergence”. This economic baseline is created using the ENV-Linkages model version 3. This baseline is used for modelling analysis with the ENVLinkages model as carried out for the OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 (to be released in Spring 2012). Specific attention is given in this paper to projections for the energy system as part of the economy, to allow detailed links between economic activity and environmental pressures, including emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs).

English

Keywords: long-term scenarios, climate change, general equilibrium models
JEL: H23: Public Economics / Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue / Taxation and Subsidies: Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies; Q56: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / Environmental Economics / Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth; D58: Microeconomics / General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium / Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models; O54: Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth / Economywide Country Studies / Economywide Country Studies: Latin America; Caribbean
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