OECD/IEA Climate Change Expert Group Papers

This series is designed to make available to a wider readership selected papers on climate change issues that have been prepared for the OECD/IEA Climate Change Expert Group (CCXG). The CCXG (formerly called the Annex I Expert Group) is a group of government delegates from OECD and other industrialised countries. The aim of the group is to promote dialogue and enhance understanding on technical issues in the international climate change negotiations. CCXG papers are developed in consultation with experts from a wide range of developed and developing countries, including those participating in CCXG Global Forums.

The full papers are generally available only in English.

The opinions expressed in these papers are the sole responsibility of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the OECD, the IEA or their member countries, or the endorsement of any approach described therein.


Accounting for baseline targets in NDCs

Issues and options for guidance

Many Parties to the Paris Agreement have expressed greenhouse gas mitigation targets relative to a baseline scenario, or “baseline targets”. Baseline targets in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) could potentially change over time including to update assumptions of emission drivers or reflect improved methodologies. This paper examines issues that can arise under Articles 4 and 6 of the Agreement when baseline targets are updated, such as potential implications of using consistent methodologies throughout the NDC implementation period. The paper also examines transparency-related issues, e.g. information needed for accounting that would be reported and reviewed under Article 13 of the Agreement. Past baseline and reference scenario reporting experience highlights relevant lessons for accounting for baseline targets, including on transparent reporting of baseline scenarios. The paper identifies reporting and accounting guidance options, including when certain types of updates could be applied to baseline targets, that could help Parties address some of these issues.


Keywords: baseline targets, accounting, guidance, mitigation, NDC, UNFCCC
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