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World Energy Outlook 2021

image of World Energy Outlook 2021

Against the backdrop of turbulent markets and a crucial meeting of the COP26 conference on climate change in Glasgow, the 2021 World Energy Outlook (WEO) provides an indispensable guide to the opportunities, benefits and risks ahead at this vital moment for clean energy transitions.

The WEO is the energy world’s most authoritative source of analysis and projections. This flagship publication of the IEA has appeared every year since 1998. Its objective data and dispassionate analysis provide critical insights into global energy supply and demand in different scenarios and the implications for energy security, climate targets and economic development.

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Exploring multiple futures: fuels

For the first time, each of the scenarios examined in this World Energy Outlook shows an eventual decline in global oil demand, although the timing and sharpness of the drop vary widely. Today’s policy settings, as set out in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), see oil demand level off at 104 million barrels per day (mb/d) in the mid-2030s and then decline very gradually to 2050. In the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), oil peaks soon after 2025 at 97 mb/d and starts to decline thereafter. Rapid action in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE) to get on track to meet the world’s climate goals sees oil demand fall sharply to 72 mb/d in 2030 and continue falling to 24 mb/d by 2050.

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