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Most people support sustainable development without knowing what it is. What exactly are sustainable consumption and sustainable production, and how are these practices identified?  This volume reviews the state-of-the-art in measuring sustainable production processes in industry. It includes metrics developed by business, trade unions, academics, NGOs, and the OECD and IEA. These measurement approaches cover the "triple bottom line" (economic, environmental and social dimensions) of industrial sustainability.

In the Same Series

Subsidy Reform and Sustainable Development: Political Economy Aspects

Subsidy Reform and Sustainable Development: Economic, Environmental and Social Aspects

Institutionalising Sustainable Development

 

Further Reading

Measuring Sustainable Development: Integrated Economic, Environmental and Social Frameworks

 

Despite public calls in many countries for reducing reliance on coal as a primary but high-carbon energy source, global demand continues to escalate. Coal has traditionally been seen as a low-cost and price-stable source of energy, but recently coal prices have increased and become much more volatile. Moreover, while coal is viewed as a very secure energy source, infrastructure bottlenecks and weather-related events can dramatically tighten the market.

This new annual IEA publication, Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2011 , presents a comprehensive analysis of recent trends in coal demand, supply and trade, as well as an IEA outlook for coal market fundamentals for the coming five years.  The report places a special focus on trade and infrastructure development in the key exporting countries. Given the existing uncertainties on the production capacity of China to meet its challenging coal demand growth, the book presents two scenarios for coal trade: a high and a low Chinese production outlook. This comparison highlights the massive influence of Chinese behaviour on the international coal trade.

With ample recoverable resources, natural gas seems destined for a bright future. It  nevertheless faces many challenges to increase its share in the primary energy mix, including insufficient upstream development, inadequate pricing structure, competition from other fuels, and geopolitical issues.

The  IEA Medium-Term Gas Market Report 2012 reviews how gas markets managed the challenges of 2011, from the consequences of the Fukushima incident to the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa to a further deteriorating economy. It gives detailed gas supply, demand and trade forecasts up to 2017, by region as well as for key countries, while investigating many of today’s crucial questions:

-Will regional gas markets diverge further or will the shale gas revolution spread worldwide?
-Will North America become a significant LNG exporter?
-Can China meet its goal of doubling gas consumption in four years?
-Will natural gas replace nuclear energy in key OECD member countries?
-Can gas finally overtake coal in the US power sector?
-Can a spot price emerge in Asia?

Amid a fragile economy and widely diverging regional gas prices, the report provides an in-depth look at future changes in trade patterns as markets absorb a second wave of LNG supply. The Medium-Term Gas Market Report tests the upper limit of gas demand in the United States, analyses European gas consumption’s struggle to recover, and assesses the potential of new suppliers.

As the fastest growing sector and accounting for around a fifth of worldwide electricity production, renewable energy has emerged as a significant source in the global mix. Much of this success has stemmed from significant policy effort and economic incentives at the country level, particularly in the OECD. Massive investment has taken place on a global scale, with costs for most technologies falling steadily. As a result, renewable energy technologies are becoming more economically attractive in an increasing range of countries and circumstances, with China, India and Brazil emerging as major deployment grounds. Going forward, the continued growth of renewable energy will depend upon the evolution of policy and market frameworks. Yet, further technology development, grid and system integration issues and the availability of finance will also weigh as key variables.

This new annual IEA publication, Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2012, provides a key benchmark, assessing the current state of play of renewable energy, identifying the main drivers and barriers to deployment and projecting renewable energy electricity capacity and generation through 2017. Starting with an in-depth analysis of key country-level markets, which represent 80% of renewable electricity generation today, the report examines the prospects for renewable energy finance and provides a global outlook for each renewable electricity technology. The report analyses enablers and barriers to renewable energy deployment in detail, examining larger electricity market issues that have implications for renewable development, including country-level demand projections, anticipated changes in conventional generating capacity and power system integration.

Supply shortfalls – from the Libyan civil war in 2011 and international sanctions on Iran in 2012 to a swathe of unplanned non-OPEC output stoppages – have buffeted the oil market, sending prices near 2008 highs and rekindling debate on the role of speculation in fuelling volatility. There have also been success stories. Growth in North American light, tight oil and non-conventional supply has reached game-changing levels. Iraqi production has scaled new heights, the Libyan production recovery in 2012 defied expectations and Saudi output surged to 30-year highs. On the demand front, the economic recovery has lost momentum. Market share continues to shift from mature to newly industrialised economies, but amid persistent concerns about the health of the former; China, the leading engine of oil demand growth of the last 15 years, is giving signs of slowdown.

Those developments have challenged earlier assumptions and significantly changed the oil market outlook for the next five years. The IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) – companion to the monthly OMR – draws their implications for the future. It provides detailed projections for oil supply at field level, crude quality trends, demand by product, refined product output and oil investments through 2017. It examines oil price formation, regulatory changes, OPEC dynamics and the future of spare capacity – while also reviewing the contribution of new supplies from deepwater, light tight oil, biofuel and natural gas liquids. It explores how market changes are reshaping the refining industry – and what that means for trade flows.

At a time of heightened economic and geopolitical risk, MTOMR is essential reading for anyone interested in oil market dynamics and in understanding the oil market context in which these risks are playing out.

The Medium-Term Coal Market Report-2012 provides IEA forecasts on coal markets for the coming five years as well as an in-depth analysis of recent developments in global coal demand, supply and trade. The annual report shows that while coal continues to be a growing source of primary energy worldwide, its future is increasingly linked to non-OECD countries, particularly China and India, and to the rise of natural gas.

The international coal market is experiencing dynamic changes. In 2011, China alone accounted for more than three-quarters of incremental coal production, while domestic consumption was more than three times that of global trade. Low gas prices associated with the shale gas revolution caused a marked decrease in coal use in the United States, the world’s second-largest consumer. This led US thermal coal producers to seek other markets, which resulted in an oversupply of coal in Europe and a significant gas-to-coal switch. Meanwhile, China overtook Japan as the largest importer of coal, and Indonesia overtook Australia as the world’s largest exporter on a tonnage basis.

The report examines the pronounced role the Chinese and Indian economies will exert on the international coal trade through 2017. In the report’s Base Case Scenario, China accounts for over half of global consumption from 2014, and India surpasses the United States as the world’s second-largest consumer of coal in 2017. The report also offers a Chinese Slowdown Case, a hypothetical scenario which shows that even if Chinese GDP growth slowed to 4.6% average over the period, the country’s coal consumption would continue to grow.

The global oil market faces unprecedented challenges and opportunities.  One thing seems clear: The oil market as we know it today will have transformed in five years. The IEA’s 2013 Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) sketches out the likely changes to 2018 and what they mean for the world. Its forecasts are based on hard facts and the most likely assumptions: current expectations of economic growth, known government policies likely to affect oil supply and demand, regulatory changes that may impact oil market participation and oil price formation, oil field decline trends, and confirmed investments in the upstream, midstream and downstream.

Last year’s MTOMR challenged conventional wisdom with its analysis of the huge potential unlocked by the North American supply revolution and the Iraqi resurgence. Building on this foundation, the 2013 MTOMR turns to the formidable challenges facing the development of these new resources, while further exploring the transformation it brings to all aspects of the market. The impact of political turmoil in the Middle East and Africa is also assessed.

On the demand front, the Report examines the continuing redistribution of demand by region, fuel-on-fuel competition between oil and natural gas, the short-term prospects for efficiency gains, and the shifting composition of the demand barrel. The MTOMR also pays close attention to the entire supply chain, including changes in refining capacity, the emergence of refining ‘mega-hubs,’ and the changing role of trading houses and midstream companies in a rapidly evolving product distribution system – and how that may affect product availability and prices.

The MTOMR’s goal is not only to get the numbers right but also to spot emerging shifts that may temporarily or durably affect the market. That makes it a unique tool for anyone engaged in policy or investment decision-making in the energy sphere, and those more broadly interested in the oil market and the global economy.

The Medium-Term Coal Market Report-2013 provides IEA forecasts on coal markets for the coming five years as well as an in-depth analysis of recent developments in global coal demand, supply and trade. This third annual report shows that while coal continues to be a growing source of primary energy worldwide, its future is increasingly tied to developments in non-OECD countries, led by China.

Coal is both the leading fuel source behind the growth of non-OECD countries and the leading source of power generation in OECD countries. Yet the current low prices for coal add a new challenge to the sector, which is facing uncertainty due to increasing environmental legislation and competition from other fuels, like US shale gas or European renewables.

This report examines, among other things, how coal producers will be affected by such low prices, whether the current low prices will boost the fuel’s consumption, if other developing countries will follow in China’s footsteps by increasingly relying on coal to fuel economic growth, and, above all, whether the strong growth of coal in China will continue between now and 2018.

 

As the supply revolution enters a new phase, oil’s role in the global energy mix is being redefined. More than ever, getting a handle on these developments is key to ensuring that energy security is maintained or enhanced, investment is appropriately targeted and resources are optimally leveraged. That makes the Medium-Term Oil Market Report's insights into the oil market for the next five years essential reading for energy industry and market stakeholders, policy makers and all those interested in energy and the broader economy.

This book examines the non-conventional supply revolution that is transforming the North American oil patch that has been widely recognised as a game changer for the oil markets and looks at how this transformation is playing out against the backdrop of other relevant market developments. It asks how long can the US oil boom can be expected to last, and what will it take for other countries to replicate this success story.

It explores what is holding up OPEC supply growth, what OPEC production capacity will look like by the end of the decade, and how the market will absorb growing condensate and natural gas liquids supplies in the United States and elsewhere. It examines whether the recovery in global oil demand will gain momentum, or if “peak demand” is just around the corner and whether oil is losing its grip on transport fuels.

It also examines whether US progress towards oil independence is a step forward or a step back for crude markets and for Middle East downstream forays. And finally it explores who will be the winners and losers of global refining capacity growth, and how will it affect the way refined products are delivered to consumers.

The Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2014 provides IEA forecasts on coal markets for the coming five years as well as an in-depth analysis of recent developments in global coal demand, supply and trade. The fourth annual report shows that, while China will continue to dominate global coal markets between now and the end of the decade, India and Southeast Asia will also drive coal demand growth, although on a smaller scale.

Despite coal’s reputation as an old-fashioned, 19th-century fuel, coal markets today are very dynamic: a variety of qualities are traded, new price indexes have been created for different qualities in different regions and an increasing amount of paper trading is taking place. Meanwhile, physical flows of coal are quite sensitive to demand and price developments – not to mention policy changes throughout the world.

This report examines whether and when China’s efforts to diversify its energy mix – the so-called ABC (anything but coal) policy – will lead to peak demand for coal in the world’s biggest coal market. It also analyses how the current environment of low prices for coal will affect not just demand and investments but also the ability of coal producers to stay in business, and how new regulations in the main importing and exporting countries may affect international trade.

What are the channels for investment in sustainable energy infrastructure by institutional investors (e.g. pension funds, insurance companies and sovereign wealth funds) and what factors influence investment decisions? What key policy levers and risk mitigants can governments use to facilitate these types of investments? What emerging channels (such as green bonds, YieldCos and direct project investment) hold significant promise for scaling up institutional investment?

This report develops a framework that classifies investments according to different types of financing instruments and investment funds, and highlights the risk mitigants and transaction enablers that intermediaries (such as public green investment banks and other public financial institutions) can use to mobilise institutionally held capital. This framework can also be used to identify where investments are or are not flowing, and focus attention on how governments can support the development of potentially promising investment channels and consider policy interventionsthat can make institutional investment in sustainable energy infrastructure more likely.

The recent oil market sell‑off, brought on by deep imbalances after years of record-high prices, will likely prove a milestone in the history of oil.  However prices eventually evolve, markets may never be the same.  This edition of the Medium-Term Oil Market Report sizes up the magnitude of this transformation so far and sketches the oil landscape at the 2020 horizon.

It is not just oil price signals that have changed, but also the market’s responsiveness to them. On the supply side, this Report’s forecast reflects not just lower price assumptions, but also the high price-sensitivity of US light tight oil compared to conventional crude, as well as OPEC’s embrace of market forces in late 2014 in a bid for market share.  On the demand front, it shows how the response to lower prices will differ in a low-growth, deflationary environment compared to a higher-growth one.

Not all factors can be easily predicted. Much hangs on the outcome of talks between Iran and the “P5+1” on that of Islamist violence in oil-producing countries, and on future relations between Russia and the West. Such geopolitical risk factors are themselves a defining feature of the oil market for the medium term.

As in previous editions, this Report also offers key projections of global refining capacity, crude trade flows and product supply, this year with special focus on the impact of changing bunker fuel legislation.

Rarely has the oil market faced changes as sweeping as today. That makes the insights from the IEA 2015 Medium-Term Oil Market Report all the more timely and valuable.

Global natural gas demand remained weak in 2014, falling well below its ten-year average. High prices for gas in the past two years undermined its competitiveness, bringing to light a harsh reality: in a world of cheap coal and falling costs for renewables, gas has laboured to compete. Although Asia has been regarded as an engine of future gas demand growth, the fuel has struggled to expand its share of the market in many parts of the region. This has raised questions over the viability of gas as an attractive strategic option across Asia.

The context for gas markets is changing rapidly, however. Falling oil prices have resulted in much lower gas prices in many parts of the word. As a result, gas demand is enjoying the tailwind of substantial price drops while the upstream sector is suffering amid large capital expenditure cuts. The interaction of these opposing effects on gas markets is examined in the IEA Medium-Term Gas Market Report 2015, which provides a detailed analysis of global demand, supply and trade developments through 2020. The impact on global gas markets of Russia’s strategic shift in its gas export policy and the rising tide of liquefied natural gas supplies are given careful consideration. Two special insights also feature in this report. The first analyses the progress Europe has made in strengthening its gas infrastructure since 2010 and the major bottlenecks that still remain in enhancing the security of supply in the region. The second takes a close look at reforms to the gas and electricity sector in Mexico, investigating their impacts on North American gas markets.