Density scenarios and urban expansion in Africa towards 2050

Urbanisation is one of the major socio economic transformations underway in Africa. According to Africapolis data, the continent’s urban population is projected to double from 700 million to 1.4 billion between 2020 and 2050, profoundly transforming Africa’s urban areas and their peripheries. How this expansion unfolds will depend not only on population growth but also on urban density. Building on the methodology presented in the report Africa's Urbanisation Dynamics 2025: Planning for Urban Expansion, this paper develops three urban density scenarios to assess how the underlying demographic dynamic could result in significantly different densification trajectories, with associated spatial implications for urban built up expansion and form. The analysis shows that density is not simply an outcome of population growth but also a strategic planning lever that policymakers, urban planners and spatial planning practitioners can use to anticipate the effects of rapid urbanisation and guide the development of cities. By focusing on both the scale and form of urban growth, this work contributes to policy debates led by institutions such as the African Union and reflected in the Nairobi Declaration of the Second Africa Urban Forum, which recognise urbanisation and planning as major drivers of Africa's structural transformation.