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Higher Education to 2030, Volume 1, Demography

image of Higher Education to 2030, Volume 1, Demography
Demographic changes increasingly shape social policies as most OECD populations are ageing and include more migrants and “minorities”. Japan and Korea have already started to see their enrolments in tertiary education decline, but other countries like Turkey and Mexico can still expect a boom. Drawing on trend data and projections, this book takes an in-depth look at these important questions from both a qualitative and quantitative standpoint. Issues covered include the impact of demographic changes on student enrolment, educational attainment, academic staff and policy choices. Particular attention is given to how access policies determine the demographics of tertiary education, notably by examining access to higher education for disabled and migrant students. The book covers most OECD countries, illustrating the analysis with specific examples from France, Japan, Korea and the United States. This book is the first volume in the Higher Education to 2030 series, which takes a forward-looking approach to analysing the impact of various contemporary trends on tertiary education systems. Two further volumes will examine the effects of technology and globalisation, and a fourth will present scenarios for the future of higher education systems.

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What is the Impact of Demography on Higher Education Systems? A Forward-looking Approach for OECD Countries

Centre for Educational Research and Innovation

This chapter aims to evaluate the impact of demographic changes on the student population, on student-teacher ratios and expenditure in higher education and on the level to which the populations are educated. It shows that demographic changes are only one of the factors determining student enrolment trends, teaching staff numbers or costs in higher education. It also demonstrates that policy responses to falling student enrolments and rising enrolments in periods of expansion are often similar, albeit for sometimes different reasons. The investigation is based on forward-looking quantitative scenarios that provide a heuristic insight into these changes and their consequences, though without claiming that they can actually be forecast.

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