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Higher Education to 2030, Volume 1, Demography

image of Higher Education to 2030, Volume 1, Demography
Demographic changes increasingly shape social policies as most OECD populations are ageing and include more migrants and “minorities”. Japan and Korea have already started to see their enrolments in tertiary education decline, but other countries like Turkey and Mexico can still expect a boom. Drawing on trend data and projections, this book takes an in-depth look at these important questions from both a qualitative and quantitative standpoint. Issues covered include the impact of demographic changes on student enrolment, educational attainment, academic staff and policy choices. Particular attention is given to how access policies determine the demographics of tertiary education, notably by examining access to higher education for disabled and migrant students. The book covers most OECD countries, illustrating the analysis with specific examples from France, Japan, Korea and the United States. This book is the first volume in the Higher Education to 2030 series, which takes a forward-looking approach to analysing the impact of various contemporary trends on tertiary education systems. Two further volumes will examine the effects of technology and globalisation, and a fourth will present scenarios for the future of higher education systems.

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Student Enrolments and Graduation Trends in the OECD Area

What Can we Learn from International Statistics?

Centre for Educational Research and Innovation

This chapter aims to disaggregate the recent expansion of tertiary education. It looks to what extent the increasing number of students in recent years reflects changes in the definition of the sector, its composition, entry rates, demographic developments and successful completion of study programmes. It also examines how this expansion affects graduation rates and the educational attainment of the population. As a conclusion, it discusses the richness and the limitations of the available statistical information for interpreting the future.

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