Higher Education to 2030, Volume 1, Demography

image of Higher Education to 2030, Volume 1, Demography
Demographic changes increasingly shape social policies as most OECD populations are ageing and include more migrants and “minorities”. Japan and Korea have already started to see their enrolments in tertiary education decline, but other countries like Turkey and Mexico can still expect a boom. Drawing on trend data and projections, this book takes an in-depth look at these important questions from both a qualitative and quantitative standpoint. Issues covered include the impact of demographic changes on student enrolment, educational attainment, academic staff and policy choices. Particular attention is given to how access policies determine the demographics of tertiary education, notably by examining access to higher education for disabled and migrant students. The book covers most OECD countries, illustrating the analysis with specific examples from France, Japan, Korea and the United States. This book is the first volume in the Higher Education to 2030 series, which takes a forward-looking approach to analysing the impact of various contemporary trends on tertiary education systems. Two further volumes will examine the effects of technology and globalisation, and a fourth will present scenarios for the future of higher education systems.

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Demography and Higher Education

The Impact on the Age Structure of Staff and Human Capital Formation

Centre for Educational Research and Innovation

This chapter first highlights major demographic trends in the OECD area and compares them to trends in other major areas of the world. It then presents a simulation to show how the ageing of staff in higher education is an outcome of two processes – ageing in place and evolution of the student population – demonstrating the importance of a cohort perspective in investigating the relation between demography and the future of higher education. The paper then looks at human capital produced by higher education in terms of the contribution to the labour market of tertiary education graduates in person-years. It concludes by speculating on the role of demographics as a driver of change in higher education.

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