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Higher Education to 2030, Volume 1, Demography

image of Higher Education to 2030, Volume 1, Demography
Demographic changes increasingly shape social policies as most OECD populations are ageing and include more migrants and “minorities”. Japan and Korea have already started to see their enrolments in tertiary education decline, but other countries like Turkey and Mexico can still expect a boom. Drawing on trend data and projections, this book takes an in-depth look at these important questions from both a qualitative and quantitative standpoint. Issues covered include the impact of demographic changes on student enrolment, educational attainment, academic staff and policy choices. Particular attention is given to how access policies determine the demographics of tertiary education, notably by examining access to higher education for disabled and migrant students. The book covers most OECD countries, illustrating the analysis with specific examples from France, Japan, Korea and the United States. This book is the first volume in the Higher Education to 2030 series, which takes a forward-looking approach to analysing the impact of various contemporary trends on tertiary education systems. Two further volumes will examine the effects of technology and globalisation, and a fourth will present scenarios for the future of higher education systems.

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Are Long-term Demographic Forecasts Possible? Turning Points and Trends

Centre for Educational Research and Innovation

This chapter serves as a methodological warning for the entire book: we demonstrate that it is the turning points that in fact play the most important role in demographic trends. We first discuss external migration, where the contrast between past and future is most glaring, and then show that the same holds true for the fertility trend, but with latencies and lags that are often lengthy. We close with a remarkable example of a turning point in the trend in age-specific mortality, to conclude that demographic trends cannot be extrapolated directly, but only explored through forward-looking scenarios incorporating political and economic factors.

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