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Computers and the Future of Skill Demand

image of Computers and the Future of Skill Demand

Computer scientists are working on reproducing all human skills using artificial intelligence, machine learning and robotics. Unsurprisingly then, many people worry that these advances will dramatically change work skills in the years ahead and perhaps leave many workers unemployable.

This report develops a new approach to understanding these computer capabilities by using a test based on the OECD’s Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) to compare computers with human workers. The test assesses three skills that are widely used at work and are an important focus of education: literacy, numeracy and problem solving with computers.

Most workers in OECD countries use the three skills every day. However, computers are close to reproducing these skills at the proficiency level of most adults in the workforce. Only 13% of workers now use these skills on a daily basis with a proficiency that is clearly higher than computers.

The findings raise troubling questions about whether most workers will be able to acquire the skills they need as these new computer capabilities are increasingly used over the next few decades. To answer those questions, the report’s approach could be extended across the full range of work skills. We need to know how computers and people compare across all skills to develop successful policies for work and education for the future.

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Methodology for assessing computer capabilities using the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC)

Centre for Educational Research and Innovation

This chapter describes the motivation and methodology for carrying out an exploratory assessment of computer capabilities to answer questions in the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC). The goal for this exercise was to develop a measure of computer capabilities that would be meaningful to educators and education researchers and also provide a credible basis for economic analysis. To achieve this goal, the OECD worked with a group of computer scientists to assess the difficulty of the PIAAC questions for computers. After setting out how the experts were chosen, the chapter describes the challenges they overcame to develop a methodology to carry out the assessment. A summary of the scope and limitations of the methodology is offered, as well as suggestions for possible future improvements.

English

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