AI and the Future of Skills, Volume 2
Methods for Evaluating AI Capabilities
As artificial intelligence (AI) expands its scope of applications across society, understanding its impact becomes increasingly critical. The OECD's AI and the Future of Skills (AIFS) project is developing a comprehensive framework for regularly measuring AI capabilities and comparing them to human skills. The resulting AI indicators should help policymakers anticipate AI’s impacts on education and work.
This volume describes the second phase of the project: exploring three different approaches to assessing AI. First, the project explored the use of education tests for the assessment by asking computer experts to evaluate AI’s performance on OECD’s tests in reading, mathematics and science. Second, the project extended the rating of AI capabilities to tests used to certify workers for occupations. These tests present complex practical tasks and are potentially useful for understanding the application of AI in the workplace. Third, the project explored measures from direct AI evaluations. It commissioned experts to develop methods for selecting high-quality direct measures, categorising them according to AI capabilities and systematising them into single indicators. The report discusses the advantages and challenges in using these approaches and describes how they will be integrated into developing indicators of AI capabilities.
Eliciting expert knowledge: Methods and challenges
This chapter delves into the methodology of collecting expert judgement in the AI and the Future of Skills project. It provides an overview of the project's journey in refining its methodology and discusses associated challenges and considerations. The chapter begins by exploring the different methods of expert knowledge elicitation based on the research literature and discusses their relevance to the project. It then addresses key questions such as the number of experts required for reliable assessments, the framing of tasks for experts, and the aggregation and interpretation of expert judgements. The chapter concludes by offering points of consideration for the project's long-term trajectory.
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