1887

OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis

The Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis has been discontinued as of 24 June 2016. This journal was published jointly with CIRET from 2004 to 2015. For more information see www.ciret.org/jbcy.

English

Keywords: business tendency, economic measurement, economic statistics, cyclical indicators, business surveys, business cycles, economic research, business investment, consumer surveys, economic indicators, economic cycle, cyclical fluctuations, short-term, economic analysis

The Swedish business cycle, 1969-2013

The aim of this paper is to apply a non-stationary, non-parametric method to date the Swedish business cycle where no official dating method exists, defined as the common dynamic of some macroeconomic time series. The method draws on a paper where the business cycle for the euro area by Holm (2011) was found and the method worked well and closely matched the dates found by the Centre for Economic Policy Research, CEPR. In this paper five recessions were found for Sweden in the 1969-2013 period.

Keywords: Business cycle, non-parametric smoothing, non-stationarity

JEL: C14, C32, E32

English

JEL: C32: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables / Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models; C14: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General / Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General; E32: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles / Business Fluctuations; Cycles
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