1887

OECD Economics Department Working Papers

Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.

The views expressed in these papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or of the governments of its member countries.

English, French

The Information Content of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Theory and Practice

The paper is devoted to an empirical examination of the information content in the term structure of nominal interest rates for future inflation. Tests of the ability of the term structure to forecast future changes in the inflation rate are carried out for six major OECD countries using monthly data. These tests demonstrate that the term structure does have considerable forecasting ability, particularly for rates taken from the short end of the maturity spectrum. However, with one exception, forecasting power tends to fade or disappear completely when the term structure in question is formed using yields on increasingly distant maturities as the long rate. This suggests that changes in the nominal term structure using such rates reflect mostly changes in the term structure of (ex post) real interest rates ...

English

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