OECD Economics Department Working Papers
The views expressed in these papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or of the governments of its member countries.
- ISSN: 18151973 (online)
- https://doi.org/10.1787/18151973
The effect of a carbon tax rise on Iceland’s economy
This paper studies the potential impact of higher carbon taxation - to reach the government’s emission targets by 2030 - on Iceland’s economy. The paper is divided into two parts. First, a DSGE modelling exercise suggests that the equivalent of an oil price hike of between 30% and 55% is needed to reach the 2030 target, implying a GDP decline of between 0.3% and 0.6% by 2030. The impact on inflation would be very small. Second, a panel regression for the fishing industry reveals that a 40-50% oil price hike would be sufficient to reduce the entire fishing fleet’s emissions by 10%, raising total factor costs for the fishing companies by 4-5%. Such a cost hike would hardly threaten the competitiveness of the fishing industry. Both approaches assume that a carbon tax rise would have no effect on production technology.
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