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Space 2030

Exploring the Future of Space Applications

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Since the launch of Sputnik in 1957, media attention has focused almost exclusively on spectacular space missions. However, space actors have also faced their fair share of setbacks: the Columbia tragedy, extravagant cost overruns and painful reductions in public support to space ventures.

Over the years, advances in space technologies have led to the development of increasingly sophisticated military and civil space assets.

Where is the space sector heading now? What are the obstacles to its further development? What are its future prospects? What are the applications that are likely to be successful in the future?

To answer these questions, this report adopted a scenario-based approach to explore the future evolution of major components of the space sector (military space, civil space, commercial space) over the next thirty years.  It covers four major factors of change: geopolitical developments, socio-economic developments, energy and the environment, technology.

"Outstanding review, especially useful for the three sophisticated scenarios, useful to many futurists."

Future Survey, August 2004.

English Also available in: French

The Current State of the Space Sector

To date, government has largely determined the evolution of the space sector, although the commercial segment took on greater importance in the 1990s in the aftermath of the cold war. The highly cyclical space industry is gradually recovering from the severe downturn of the early 2000s, which was largely due to the bursting of the dot.com bubble. In the medium term, public markets should be the industry’s main engine of growth, because the strategic value of space is increasingly recognised in the OECD area as well as in Russia and in a number of emerging space-faring countries, such as China, India and Brazil...

English

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