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2004 Perspectives économiques de l'OCDE, Volume 2004 Numéro 2

image of Perspectives économiques de l'OCDE, Volume 2004 Numéro 2

Évaluation par l’OCDE en décembre 2004 des évolutions et perspectives économiques. Outre les analyses économiques et données statistiques habituelles, ce numéro présente des articles examinant les évolutions des cours du pétrole, et le comportement de l’épargne et l’efficacité de la politique budgétaire.

French German, English

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Évolution des prix du pétrole

Moteurs, conséquences économiques et ajustement des politiques

At the end of October the oil price had more than doubled in dollar terms since the late 1990s, while increasing substantially, though somewhat less, in terms of the other major currencies. The chapter begins by investigating the fundamentals driving longer-term oil market developments and the implications for the long-run equilibrium price. It then identifies short-term influences which may have caused risk premia to rise, volatility to increase, and the oil price to diverge from its equilibrium. It concludes with an assessment of the impact of higher oil prices on OECD growth and inflation and the implications for economic policy.

French English

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