1887

OECD Economics Department Working Papers

Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.

The views expressed in these papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or of the governments of its member countries.

English, French

Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Stabilisation Policies

This paper studies optimal stabilisation policies under commitment when monetary policy sets nominal interest rates and fiscal policy decides on public expenditure, income tax rates, and issuance of nominal non-contingent debt. High levels of government debt adversely affect the steady state of the economy and increase aggregate volatility. The latter emerges because debt exposes the government budget to real interest rate risk and thereby induces stronger volatility of taxes and public spending. The optimal variability of fiscal deficits is found to increase with the level of government debt, while the optimal variability of nominal interest rates decreases. Overall, optimal stabilisation policy does not require annual fiscal deficits to deviate by more than 3 percentage points of GDP from their steady state value or nominal interest rates to fall all the way to zero. Only if the standard deviation of economic disturbances is two to three times larger than suggested by post-war evidence do such events occur with non-negligible probability.

English

Keywords: government spending, non-contingent government debt, distortionary taxes, Ramsey optimal policy, interest rate policy
JEL: E32: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles / Business Fluctuations; Cycles; E63: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook / Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
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