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2020 OECD Economic Surveys: United Kingdom 2020

image of OECD Economic Surveys: United Kingdom 2020

Like many countries, the United Kingdom has been hit severely by the COVID-19 outbreak. A strict lockdown was essential to contain the pandemic but halted activity in many key sectors. While restrictions have eased, the country now faces a prolonged period of disruption to activity and jobs, which risks exacerbating pre-existing weak productivity growth, inequalities, child poverty and regional disparities. On-going measures to prevent a second wave of infections will need to be carefully calibrated to manage the economic impact. The country started from a position of relatively high well-being on many dimensions. But productivity and investment growth have been weak in recent years and an ambitious agenda of reforms will be key to a sustainable recovery. Leaving the EU Single Market, in which the economy is deeply integrated, creates new economic challenges. Decisions made now about management of the COVID-19 crisis and future trade relationships will have a lasting impact on the country’s economic trajectory for the years to come.

SPECIAL FEATURES: COVID-19 CRISIS; EU EXIT; PRODUCTIVITY

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Key policy insights

Like many countries, the United Kingdom has been hit hard by the outbreak of COVID-19 and the measures taken to contain the pandemic have triggered the most severe fall in output since the 1920s (Figure 1.1). As the public health situation improves, the economic consequences will come to the fore. While some activities are picking up as restrictions ease, overall demand is expected to recover only gradually and unemployment will increase and remain high for some time. The service sectors, particularly those involving face-to-face interactions, bore the brunt of the COVID-19 shock, affecting many lower-skilled and more vulnerable workers. A rapid and massive emergency policy response, including extra funding to the health system and massive support to workers and firms, helped steady the economy. Policies moved to a second phase since July with the Plan for Jobs and the Winter Economic Plan, winding down some emergency measures, extending some support and introducing new measures focused on buttressing demand and jobs. A sustained and strong recovery will depend heavily on the resilience of the economy and the effectiveness of Testing, Tracking and Tracing (TTT) measures to limit the spread of the virus until a vaccine or an effective treatment are available. Fostering productivity growth in the service sectors, which has been flat-lining since the financial crisis and is lagging behind its main trading partners, will be key to support a long-lasting and sustainable recovery and deliver prosperity for all.

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