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2010 OECD Economic Surveys: Turkey 2010

image of OECD Economic Surveys: Turkey 2010

This 2010 edition of OECD's periodical review of Turkey's economy examines sustaining the post-crisis recovery and mitigating future macroeconomic volatility, fostering sound integration with the global capital market, and regulatory reforms to unlock long-term growth.

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After the crisis

ensuring sustained recovery and mitigating future macroeconomic volatility

Turkey is recovering from its most severe recession in several decades. The massive contraction in GDP is largely explained by the unprecedented collapse in foreign demand, which was aggravated in Turkey by negative confidence effects and structural problems with competitiveness prior to the crisis. In contrast to previous recessions, Turkey could afford counter-cyclical polices and the financial markets proved resilient. During the crisis, the authorities cut interest rates significantly and promptly and implemented fiscal stimulus. This truly novel experience was possible thanks to a better macroeconomic position, a sounder monetary and fiscal policy framework, and better financial market regulations. The immediate policy challenge is to gradually remove policy stimulus and address medium-term stability considerations in a way that does not jeopardise the recovery. Once growth gains full speed, the authorities will likely face the challenge of widening external imbalances and of ensuring a smooth functioning of the financial markets. The former will require improving competitiveness, raising domestic saving, attracting more FDI inflows and reducing energy import dependency. Improvements in many of these areas will require structural reforms in the labour and product markets.

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