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OECD Economic Surveys: Russian Federation 2006

image of OECD Economic Surveys: Russian Federation 2006

This 2006 edition of OECD's periodic review of the Russian economy finds an economy enjoying robust growth, but requiring strengthening of the macroeconomic framework to sustain that growth.  Public administration urgently needs reform and raising innovation potential could do much to sustain rapid growth. The healthcare system suffers from fundamental imbalances and its reform could arrest the decline in health now being experienced.  This survey offers a series of recommendations for addressing these issues.

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Assessment and recommendations

Real GDP growth during 1999-2005 averaged 6.7%. Initially driven by a rebound from the 1998 financial crisis, recent growth has been underpinned by large terms-of-trade gains that have translated, on the demand side, into a surge in domestic consumption. However, booming consumption has coincided with weakening export performance and surging imports. Investment is growing strongly but investment rates remain relatively low and will need to rise substantially if Russia is to sustain strong growth over the longer term. Already, there are indications that growth in many sectors is supply-constrained, and growth since 2003 has been driven increasingly by non-tradables. The growth of oil production, which was the major driver of growth during 2000-03, has slowed markedly.

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