2023 OECD Economic Surveys: Poland 2023

image of OECD Economic Surveys: Poland 2023

Poland has successfully managed a large inflow of refugees from Ukraine. The impact of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is overshadowing the outlook and economic growth is expected to slow to 0.9% this year before it recovers to 2.4% in 2024. Both monetary and fiscal policies should ensure that higher inflation does not become entrenched. Fiscal policy continues to support the economy in managing higher energy prices. Long term fiscal pressures need to be addressed, for instance by broadening the revenue base, improving spending efficiency and raising retirement age.

Digitalisation can help unleash the entrepreneurial potential of Polish businesses at home and in global markets but requires adequate skills. This requires the government to take a comprehensive approach across several policy areas, such as adult education, life-long learning and training for SMEs.

Poland has made progress in transitioning to net zero emissions by 2050, but the rate of decarbonisation needs to accelerate significantly. Setting out a clear long-term path for carbon prices would provide more clarity to households and businesses. A just energy transition requires supporting the most affected workers and regions.



Executive Summary

Poland recovered quickly from the COVID-19 pandemic, but economic growth is stalling following Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Inflation has soared against the backdrop of high global energy and food prices and domestic labour market pressures (Figure 1). While Poland’s energy supply remains reliant on coal and use of gas is limited, imports of both Russian coal and gas have been replaced and overall trade links with Russia and Belarus are relatively small. Inflation has been rising in the course of 2022 largely driven by higher energy prices, but also reflecting domestic factors, with consumer price inflation up 17.2% in January.



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