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2012 OECD Economic Surveys: Poland 2012

Volume 2012 Issue 7

image of OECD Economic Surveys: Poland 2012
OECD's 2012 Economic Survey of Poland examines recent economic developments, policies, and prospects. It also includes special chapters covering climate change and health care.

English Polish, French

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Assessment and recommendations

Since2007, Poland has been the best economic performer within the OECD as measured by real GDP growth (Figure 1). As a result, Poland has caught up on average 2 percentage points of its GDP-per-capita gap with the EU15 annually since 2005, more than double the rate achieved in the first half of the 2000s. This strong performance can be explained by substantial inflows of EU funds (which have contributed to modernising transport infrastructure), stimulus from domestic macroeconomic policies (through 2010), exchangerate depreciation and effective prudential regulation of the comparatively solid financial system. In contrast, despite improved business-sector profitability, private capital outlays were weak until 2010 (Figure 2). In 2011, real GDP, mainly driven by private consumption and public investment, especially in the construction sector, is estimated to have grown by 4.3%, exceeding OECD estimates of potential growth of about 3-3.5%. However, the sustainability of high growth is open to question, unless a broad range of reforms are undertaken to deal with underlying imbalances and to overcome structural weaknesses. With the government having received its second electoral mandate, now is the time to formulate and implement a reform programme that will promote continued rapid catch-up and solidify the confidence of financial markets in Poland’s economic future.

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