OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2023 Issue 1
A long unwinding road
Global economic developments have begun to improve, helped by lower energy prices, improving business and consumer sentiment, and the reopening of China. However, the OECD Economic Outlook highlights that the upturn is fragile and the recovery is set to remain weak by past standards, with the effects of tighter monetary policy increasingly being felt. The Outlook underlines a range of risks, including the possibility that inflation could prove more persistent than projected and that the impact of higher interest rates on financial markets and economic activity could be stronger than expected. Well-calibrated policy measures are required to unwind the impact of the recent sequence of negative shocks to the global economy, restore economic stability, and strengthen prospects for strong, inclusive and sustainable improvements in living standards.
This issue includes an assessment of the global economic situation, a chapter on promoting gender equality to strengthen economic growth and resilience and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD members as well as for selected partner economies.
Also available in: French
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GDP growth is projected to be 1.3% in 2023 before picking up to 2% in 2024. High inflation will weigh on private consumption growth, although the impact is mitigated by substantial government support measures. Investment growth will be supported by the absorption of substantial EU funds in 2023. The recovery of global demand and continued easing of supply chain disruptions will boost export growth in 2024. The main risks to the projections are related to an escalation of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, which would weigh on foreign demand and could lead to a resurgence of global energy prices, increased inflation and lower growth.
Also available in: French
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