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2023 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2023 Issue 1

A long unwinding road

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2023 Issue 1

Global economic developments have begun to improve, helped by lower energy prices, improving business and consumer sentiment, and the reopening of China. However, the OECD Economic Outlook highlights that the upturn is fragile and the recovery is set to remain weak by past standards, with the effects of tighter monetary policy increasingly being felt. The Outlook underlines a range of risks, including the possibility that inflation could prove more persistent than projected and that the impact of higher interest rates on financial markets and economic activity could be stronger than expected. Well-calibrated policy measures are required to unwind the impact of the recent sequence of negative shocks to the global economy, restore economic stability, and strengthen prospects for strong, inclusive and sustainable improvements in living standards.

This issue includes an assessment of the global economic situation, a chapter on promoting gender equality to strengthen economic growth and resilience and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD members as well as for selected partner economies.

English Also available in: French

Deutschland

Die Wirtschaft wird 2023 voraussichtlich stagnieren und 2024 um 1,3 % wachsen. Die hohe Inflation schmälert die Realeinkommen und Ersparnisse, wodurch der private Konsum gedämpft wird. Die Exporte dürften sich 2023 aber erholen, weil die Lieferkettenengpässe nachlassen und sich ein Rekordauftrags-bestand angestaut hat. Außerdem haben sich das Investitions- und das Konsumklima dank deutlicher Energiepreisentlastungen, einer raschen Substitution russischer Energieimporte und sinkender Energie-preise aufgehellt. Die Investitionstätigkeit wird trotz steigender Zinsen weiter zunehmen. Vor allem die hohe Ersparnisbildung im Unternehmenssektor wird für eine Belebung sorgen, ebenso wie der beträchtliche Investitionsbedarf für die Verlagerung der Lieferketten und den Ausbau der erneuerbaren Energien. Zudem wird der Staat selbst mehr investieren und deutliche Steueranreize für grüne Investitionen setzen.

German Also available in: French, English

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