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2023 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2023 Issue 1

A long unwinding road

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2023 Issue 1

Global economic developments have begun to improve, helped by lower energy prices, improving business and consumer sentiment, and the reopening of China. However, the OECD Economic Outlook highlights that the upturn is fragile and the recovery is set to remain weak by past standards, with the effects of tighter monetary policy increasingly being felt. The Outlook underlines a range of risks, including the possibility that inflation could prove more persistent than projected and that the impact of higher interest rates on financial markets and economic activity could be stronger than expected. Well-calibrated policy measures are required to unwind the impact of the recent sequence of negative shocks to the global economy, restore economic stability, and strengthen prospects for strong, inclusive and sustainable improvements in living standards.

This issue includes an assessment of the global economic situation, a chapter on promoting gender equality to strengthen economic growth and resilience and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD members as well as for selected partner economies.

English Also available in: French

Iceland

Economic growth will come down to 4.4% in 2023 and 2.6% in 2024. Private consumption will slow as wages moderate. So will business investment as financial conditions continue to tighten, and public investment will barely grow. In contrast, residential investment will pick up in the near term to work off pent-up demand. Export growth will slow given only modest growth in major trading partners. The unemployment rate will gradually rise towards 4.5% by the end of 2024. Headline inflation is expected to decline from around 10% in early 2023 to around 3% by late 2024.

English Also available in: French

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