2023 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2023 Issue 1

A long unwinding road

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2023 Issue 1

Global economic developments have begun to improve, helped by lower energy prices, improving business and consumer sentiment, and the reopening of China. However, the OECD Economic Outlook highlights that the upturn is fragile and the recovery is set to remain weak by past standards, with the effects of tighter monetary policy increasingly being felt. The Outlook underlines a range of risks, including the possibility that inflation could prove more persistent than projected and that the impact of higher interest rates on financial markets and economic activity could be stronger than expected. Well-calibrated policy measures are required to unwind the impact of the recent sequence of negative shocks to the global economy, restore economic stability, and strengthen prospects for strong, inclusive and sustainable improvements in living standards.

This issue includes an assessment of the global economic situation, a chapter on promoting gender equality to strengthen economic growth and resilience and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD members as well as for selected partner economies.

English Also available in: French


Economic activity is projected to slowly recover from the current downturn, with GDP rising by 0.2% in 2023 and 1.6% in 2024, supported by stronger domestic demand. Headline inflation will gradually decrease and rising real wages will support household incomes from the second half of 2023. Tight labour market conditions will loosen slightly over the projection period, bringing a small increase in unemployment. Business investment will be damped by elevated interest rates and labour costs.

English Also available in: French, German



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