OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 1
The war in Ukraine is a major humanitarian crisis with associated economic shocks that threaten the post-pandemic recovery. The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 1, highlights the implications and risks for growth, inflation and living standards from higher commodity prices and potential disruptions to energy and food supplies, and discusses the associated policy challenges.
This issue includes a general assessment of the macro-economic situation and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD Members as well as for selected partner economies.
Italy
After a sharp 6.6% rebound in 2021, Italy’s GDP growth will be hit by the war. Growth is expected to be 2.5% in 2022, supported by strong base effects, and 1.2% in 2023. Persistent war-related inflationary pressures and uncertainty will hold back household consumption, slowing the recovery in services. New incentives for the private sector and the National Recovery and Resilience Plan will mitigate some of the negative impact of supply disruptions and uncertainty on investment. With gas constituting 42% of total energy consumption, the main risks to the outlook are energy prices and supplies. Sharply higher bond yields could also lower growth.
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