OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 1
The war in Ukraine is a major humanitarian crisis with associated economic shocks that threaten the post-pandemic recovery. The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 1, highlights the implications and risks for growth, inflation and living standards from higher commodity prices and potential disruptions to energy and food supplies, and discusses the associated policy challenges.
This issue includes a general assessment of the macro-economic situation and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD Members as well as for selected partner economies.
Euro area
After a strong rebound in 2021, real GDP is projected to grow by 2.6% in 2022 and 1.6% in 2023. Growth is set to be significantly damped in the first half of 2022 by the war in Ukraine and the lockdowns in China. These factors are also pushing inflation up further, to a projected 7% this year. This is weighing on households’ consumption and increasing uncertainty. With the Russian oil embargo from 2023 pushing oil prices up, growth is expected to remain subdued in 2023 and inflation is set to decline only gradually. Risks to economic activity remain tilted to the downside: severe disruptions in energy, notably gas, supply would hit growth in Europe while pushing inflation further up.
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