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2020 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 2

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 2

The COVID-19 pandemic will cast a long shadow over the world’s economies and the economic outlook is very uncertain. This issue of the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the impacts of COVID-19 on the economy and puts forward projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.

This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, a series of notes on the current policy challenges related to the COVID-19 pandemic and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD members as well as for selected partner economies.

English Also available in: French, German

Italy

After falling sharply in 2020, GDP is projected to expand by 4.3% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022. Lockdowns and uncertainty are weighing on activity, although government support has mitigated the effects on firms and households. Substantial job creation, especially for the low-skilled, women and youth, will return only in 2022, when an effective vaccine is expected to have been deployed widely, stimulating consumption, and easing precautionary saving. Investment and exports are expected to recover gradually alongside the manufacturing sector. Supportive fiscal policy is resulting in rising public debt levels, but interest rates are projected to remain low. Higher growth is needed to improve the fiscal position in the medium term.

English Also available in: French

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