2020 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 1

The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.

Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, a series of notes on the macroeconomic and structural policy issues related to the COVID-19 outbreak and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.

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The economy is projected to contract by 14.4% in 2020 in a scenario with a second virus outbreak later in the year, and by 11.1% in a scenario assuming that the pandemic subsides by the summer. The subsequent recovery in 2021 will be slower in the former case, at 5%, compared to the rebound of 7.5% in the single-hit scenario, given more persistent effects on labour markets and the financial situation of firms and households. In both scenarios, the fall in domestic demand, due to job destruction and the shutdown of activity, is the key driver of the contraction. The drop in external demand, especially in tourism services, will also weigh very strongly on the economy in 2020.

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