2020 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 1

The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.

Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, a series of notes on the macroeconomic and structural policy issues related to the COVID-19 outbreak and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.

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The economy is set to contract strongly in the first half of 2020 amid a strict lockdown. Supportive economic policies are cushioning workers and businesses from the full impact of the shock. However, depressed confidence and impaired household and business balance sheets will hold back the recovery as the economy further reopens. The second wave of virus assumed in the double‑hit scenario entails additional business closures and job losses, delaying the recovery and threatening to entrench long‑term unemployment and risk aversion by firms. If this were to occur, annual GDP would decline by 8¾ per cent in 2020 with virtually no recovery in 2021. If a further outbreak is avoided (the single-hit scenario), GDP would fall by 6¾ per cent in 2020 and then recover by 4¾ per cent in 2021.

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