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2020 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 1

The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.

Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, a series of notes on the macroeconomic and structural policy issues related to the COVID-19 outbreak and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.

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China

Following the steepest quarterly collapse on record in the first quarter, GDP will fall by around 3.7% in 2020 if there is a second virus outbreak later in the year and by a percentage point less if a further outbreak is avoided, before rebounding in 2021. The COVID‑19 outbreak disrupted economic activities around the country and many businesses remain shut even though lockdown measures have been lifted. The pandemic triggered an increase in precautionary saving and eroded consumer confidence, weakening short‑term consumption prospects. Infrastructure investment will hold up growth amid collapsing private investment and foreign demand. If the virus outbreak returns, the second shock to the economy will be much smaller than during the first outbreak, which occurred during the holiday season when most people were away and thereby were not able to return to work due to lockdowns.

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