2020 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 1

The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.

Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, a series of notes on the macroeconomic and structural policy issues related to the COVID-19 outbreak and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.

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Economic growth slowed before the pandemic started and is projected to contract sharply in 2020, despite a relatively lenient lockdown. Activity will recover, but gradually, as uncertainty will remain high and activity in some service sectors will remain subdued. Domestic demand will drive the recovery, while exports will be slower to pick up due to the severe recession in Europe. Investment will drop and stay low throughout 2021, particularly should a second lockdown be necessary (the double-hit scenario). Unemployment is projected to increase and remain elevated due to a slow recovery of labour‑intensive sectors. Public debt will soar but will stay low relative to other OECD countries.

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