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2019 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2019 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2019 Issue 1

The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.

Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment, a special chapter on the effects of digitalisation on productivity and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.

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China

Growth is projected to decline gradually in 2019-20 as the economy continues to rebalance. Signs of the slowdown include the weakening of private investment, in particular real estate investment. Housing investment will remain subdued following a series of measures to restrict demand and a deterioration in consumer confidence. Accelerating infrastructure investment will partly make up for that. Consumption will grow steadily on the back of strong growth of disposable incomes. Foreign trade flows will continue to lose momentum as trade tensions have escalated. The current account surplus is projected to turn into a small deficit because of buoyant outbound tourism spending and lower exports due to higher tariffs faced by Chinese exporters.

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