OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2017 Issue 1
The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.
Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment, a special chapter on how to make trade work for all and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. A statistical annex is available on the web.
General assessment of the macroeconomic situation
After many years of weak recovery, with global growth in 2016 at the lowest rate since 2009, some signs of improvement have begun to appear. Trade and manufacturing output growth have picked up from a very low level, helped by firmer domestic demand growth in Asia and Europe, and private sector confidence has strengthened. But policy uncertainty remains high, trust in government has diminished, wage growth is still weak, inequality persists, and imbalances and vulnerabilities remain in financial markets. Against this background, a modest pick-up in global GDP growth is projected this year to 3½ per cent, with an upturn in trade and investment intensity and improving outcomes in several major commodity producers. Only a small improvement is in prospect for 2018, taking global GDP growth to 3.6%. With modest additional pressures in labour and product markets, inflation is likely to remain subdued in the major economies, provided commodity prices do not strengthen further.