GDP is projected to fall by around 3% in 2015, and to grow less than 1% in 2016. This weak turnaround is supported by the recovery of oil prices, better international relations achieved in the first half of 2015 and on the success of import substitution programmes. A spike in consumer price inflation, which has peaked at around 17%, resulted in a sharp fall in real wages, weighing on private consumption. The current account remains in surplus because lower revenues from oil and gas exports are more than offset by falling imports, which reflect weak domestic demand and sanctions.