2014 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2014 Issue 2

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2014 Issue 2

The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances. Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment, chapters summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.

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Growth has lost momentum in 2014. Policies to hold back domestic demand in the face of a large current account deficit, increased volatility in capital flows and political uncertainties led to a sharp deceleration in private consumption and investment. This was offset to some extent by a pick-up in exports. In the context of serious regional geopolitical tensions and the sluggish recovery in Europe, exports are projected to be subdued and GDP growth to be relatively weak by Turkish standards, at 3¼ per cent in 2015 and 4% in 2016. The current account deficit is set to stay above 5% of GDP, and large short-term foreign debt refinancing needs make Turkey vulnerable to shifts in international investor sentiments.

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