2013 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2013 Issue 2

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2013 Issue 2

The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD’s twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances. Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment, chapters summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country and a statistical annex.

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Growth is picking up and inflation remains low. Domestic demand has led the turnaround, aided by a small fiscal stimulus and rapid credit expansion that did not slacken until June 2013. By past standards though, the recovery is subdued, reflecting a marked slowing in potential growth in the past few years. The momentum of domestic demand is projected to help external rebalancing resume in 2014 but little change has occurred so far in the structure of domestic demand. Overall excess capacity is limited and shrinking. With a fairly neutral macroeconomic policy stance, growth is projected to peak in 2014 and then edge down to around 7.5% in 2015.

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