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2011 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2011 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2011 Issue 1

The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD’s twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years.  Prepared by the OECD Economics Department, the Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices and current balances based on a review of each member country and of the induced effect on each of them on international developments.

Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. Each issue includes a general assessment, chapters summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country, three to five chapters on topics of current interest, and an extensive statistical annex. Subscribers to the print edition also have access to an online edition, published on the internet six to eight weeks prior to the release of the print edition. In addition to the usual macroeconomic and country assessments and statistical annex with projection data, this issue of the OECD Economic Outlook also includes special chapters on the persistence of high unemployment and drivers and vulnerabilities associated with international capital flows.

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United Kingdom

The recovery paused in end-2010 and growth is projected to remain weak in 2011, despite rising exports and business investment, but to pick up in 2012. Above-target inflation, driven by tax increases and commodity prices, and needed fiscal consolidation, will hold back private consumption and public spending during 2011-12. Inflation will remain above the 2% target through 2011 and most of 2012, but is set to fall when the effects of the tax increases and rising import prices wane. As inflation falls, private consumption should start to recover. Unemployment is likely to increase in the short term, reflecting the slow recovery and rising labour force participation.

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