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2011 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2011 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2011 Issue 1

The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD’s twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years.  Prepared by the OECD Economics Department, the Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices and current balances based on a review of each member country and of the induced effect on each of them on international developments.

Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. Each issue includes a general assessment, chapters summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country, three to five chapters on topics of current interest, and an extensive statistical annex. Subscribers to the print edition also have access to an online edition, published on the internet six to eight weeks prior to the release of the print edition. In addition to the usual macroeconomic and country assessments and statistical annex with projection data, this issue of the OECD Economic Outlook also includes special chapters on the persistence of high unemployment and drivers and vulnerabilities associated with international capital flows.

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General Assessment of the Macroeconomic Situation

The recovery from the deepest recession in decades is becoming more broadly based. Global growth has picked up since the soft patch in the middle of last year and activity is driven increasingly by strengthening private final demand. However, progress remains uneven across economies. In the near term, the adverse supply-side shocks from high commodity prices and the earthquake in Japan and its aftermath are damping activity somewhat and pushing up headline inflation. Such effects should fade from the latter half of this year, provided commodity prices stabilise and inflation expectations do not become unanchored. Financial conditions continue to improve and monetary policy remains accommodative in the OECD economies, though increasingly less so in emerging market economies where spare capacity has been largely absorbed.

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