2010 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2010 Issue 2

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2010 Issue 2

The OECD Economic Outlook analyses the current economic situation and examines the economic policies required to foster a sustained recovery in member countries. This issue covers the outlook to end-2012 for both OECD countries and selected non-OECD economies. Together with a wide range of cross-country statistics, the Outlook provides a unique resource to keep abreast of world economic developments.

In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains a special chapter entitled “Fiscal consolidation: Requirements, timing, instruments and institutional arrangements. It addresses the following questions: How much budget consolidation is required in individual OECD countries to stabilise the ratio of government debt to GDP and what are the requirements to bring gross debt ratios to 60% of GDP? What factors should determine the appropriate speed of consolidation? What instruments should be employed for consolidation and what kind of public spending should be cut and what kind of taxes should be raised? What fiscal rules and institutions are most likely to foster consolidation?

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Rebalancing of the economy continues in 2010, with consumption still weak while exports grow strongly. This pattern will also shape the recovery in 2011, while 2012 should see a return of robust growth in consumer spending. GDP growth is projected at 3.4% in 2011 and about 4% in 2012. Headline inflation accelerated in the second half of 2010, driven by food and energy prices and recovering markups, and is expected to be about 3.4% in 2011. Constrained by high unemployment and ongoing slack in the economy, core inflation will pick up only gradually.

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