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2010 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2010 Issue 2

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2010 Issue 2

The OECD Economic Outlook analyses the current economic situation and examines the economic policies required to foster a sustained recovery in member countries. This issue covers the outlook to end-2012 for both OECD countries and selected non-OECD economies. Together with a wide range of cross-country statistics, the Outlook provides a unique resource to keep abreast of world economic developments.

In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains a special chapter entitled “Fiscal consolidation: Requirements, timing, instruments and institutional arrangements. It addresses the following questions: How much budget consolidation is required in individual OECD countries to stabilise the ratio of government debt to GDP and what are the requirements to bring gross debt ratios to 60% of GDP? What factors should determine the appropriate speed of consolidation? What instruments should be employed for consolidation and what kind of public spending should be cut and what kind of taxes should be raised? What fiscal rules and institutions are most likely to foster consolidation?

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China

With the impact of the stimulus plan fading, China’s vigorous expansion slowed during the first half of 2010, but has picked up somewhat since then. This renewed buoyancy is projected to continue in 2011-12, as faster domestic demand offsets a renewed slowdown in exports, stabilising the current account surplus at around 5½ per cent of GDP. An acceleration in non-food prices is expected to be offset by an easing in food price inflation, resulting in a stabilisation of inflation at slightly above 3%.

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