2010 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2010 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2010 Issue 1

The OECD Economic Outlook analyses the current economic situation and examines the economic policies required to foster a sustained recovery in member countries. This issue covers the outlook to end-2011 for both OECD countries and selected non-OECD economies. Together with a wide range of cross-country statistics, the Outlook provides a unique tool to keep abreast of world economic developments.

In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains three special chapters. The first covers prospects for growth & imbalances beyond the short-term, the second covers return to work after the crisis, and the third examines counter cyclical economic policy.


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General Assessment of the Macroeconomic Situation

The global recovery has become increasingly widespread over the past year, despite progressing at variable speeds across countries and regions. Global output growth is expected to be around 4¾ per cent this year and in 2011, above the growth rate experienced in the decade prior to the onset of the crisis (Table 1.1). In the non-OECD economies, especially in Asia, the recovery is likely to remain buoyant, with the strong macroeconomic policy response to the financial crisis being rolled back only gradually, and a limited direct exposure to the crisis itself and to the associated lingering effects. Sustaining and broadening the recovery is proving somewhat more challenging in many OECD economies, despite the favourable backdrop from strong external demand, the progressive, if fragile, normalisation of financial conditions and the effects of strong, albeit diminishing, macroeconomic policy stimulus. Headwinds stem from the legacies of the crisis, such as weak private and public balance sheets, high unemployment and the increasingly urgent need for fiscal consolidation. The annual rate of output growth in the OECD area is expected to be around 2¾ per cent over the year to the fourth quarter...

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