2009 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2009 Issue 2

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2009 Issue 2
This November 2009 issue of OECD's twice-yearly OECD Economic Outlook provides analysis of recent economic developments and economic projections for OECD and major non-OECD countries through the end of 2011. This issue contains a special chapter entitled “The automobile industry in and beyond the crisis”. It examines how closely the automobile and business cycles are related, how the automobile industry been affected by the crisis and what are the prospects for car sales.

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Following the sharp decline in the first quarter of the year, real GDP increased in the second quarter, helped by the temporary surge in private consumption growth in response to stimulus measures. The recovery continued in the third quarter on account of an improvement in world trade and stockbuilding. Going forward, the improvement in activity could be relatively slow, especially through to mid- 2010. Unemployment remains unusually low, not least due to the government-sponsored short-time working scheme which allows firms to reduce labour input without layoffs. While unemployment is projected to increase rapidly during 2010 the total employment loss will be mild compared with the depth of the recession.

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