2009 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2009 Issue 2

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2009 Issue 2
This November 2009 issue of OECD's twice-yearly OECD Economic Outlook provides analysis of recent economic developments and economic projections for OECD and major non-OECD countries through the end of 2011. This issue contains a special chapter entitled “The automobile industry in and beyond the crisis”. It examines how closely the automobile and business cycles are related, how the automobile industry been affected by the crisis and what are the prospects for car sales.

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General Assessment of the Macroeconomic Situation

Growth in the OECD area has resumed after the most virulent recession in decades. The recovery is driven by exceptionally strong demand-supporting policy measures, public interventions in financial markets, a strong pick-up in demand in the non-OECD area and a positive contribution from inventory adjustment. Notwithstanding the support to growth in the coming two years from recent and assumed future improvements in financial conditions, the continued need to strengthen financial institutions, on-going private sector balance sheet adjustment and waning macroeconomic policy support are likely to imply a moderate recovery (Table 1.1). Area-wide unemployment is set to continue to rise well into 2010 and to fall only modestly in 2011 from its peak of over 9% of the labour force. The exceptional slack in the economy will push down underlying inflation further to very low levels in several countries, though only a few will experience falling price levels.

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