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2008 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2008 Issue 2

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2008 Issue 2

This December 2008 edition of the OECD Economic Outlook presents OECD's first set of economic analysis and projections since the financial crisis began. As always, it includes and overall assessment as well as individual country assessments for OECD and major non-OECD economies, and an extensive statistical annex.  This edition's special feature covers responses to inflation shocks.

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United States

The US economy is facing extremely difficult conditions. The financial crisis has intensified at a time when growth had already been weakened by the prolonged housing downturn. A credit crunch is likely to result in a pronounced contraction in activity over the near term and a further deterioration of the labour market. Once financial conditions normalise, GDP growth should resume but at a slower pace than in past recoveries, in part because of negative wealth effects. In response to lower commodity prices and the opening of a large output gap, inflation should recede significantly to around 1½ per cent in 2010.

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