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2008 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2008 Issue 2

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2008 Issue 2

This December 2008 edition of the OECD Economic Outlook presents OECD's first set of economic analysis and projections since the financial crisis began. As always, it includes and overall assessment as well as individual country assessments for OECD and major non-OECD economies, and an extensive statistical annex.  This edition's special feature covers responses to inflation shocks.

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Responses to Inflation Shock

Do G7 Countries Behave Differently?

After declining steadily since the early 1980s, domestic inflation picked up again in the early 2000s in most OECD countries and has accelerated significantly over the past year before receding very recently (Chapter 1) These movements can to a large extent be related to import prices and more specifically the commodity components of imports (Figure 4.1). Between 2000 and July 2008, oil prices expressed in US dollars and yen increased fivefold and non-energy commodity prices have more than doubled. Since then, commodity prices (in particular oil prices) have declined but still remain above their level in early 2007. The monetary policy responses to higher inflationary pressures have differed across industrialised economies even using benchmarks that take into account the relative cyclical positions of the major economies. Some central banks have appeared more “hawkish” on inflation, while others, where the acceleration of commodity prices inflation coincided with the beginning of financial turmoil, have appeared more dovish.

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