OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2007 Issue 1

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China
Output growth moderated slightly in the second half of 2006, after a very strong first half, as the restrictive measures that were put in place in the middle of the year took effect. Despite this slowdown, growth averaged 10¾ per cent in 2006. Domestic demand is projected to accelerate as rural consumption increases and construction recovers from the administrative measures taken in 2006. Although the currency appreciated against the dollar, it depreciated in effective terms during 2006 and has only appreciated modestly in 2007. Easing of world demand and the slight appreciation of the currency is likely to result in the some easing of export growth, with only part of the acceleration of domestic demand offset by faster import growth, leaving the growth of GDP at 10.4% in 2007 and 2008. The current account surplus reached 9.5% of GDP in 2006 and is expected to continue its increase, reaching over 10½ per cent of GDP ($368 billion) by 2008. Inflation is projected to be slightly higher this year due to the acceleration in food prices, but ease to 1.5% in 2008.
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