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2007 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2007 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2007 Issue 1
This issue of OECD's twice-yearly OECD Economic Outlook provides analysis of recent economic developments and economic projections for OECD and major non-OECD countries through the end of 2008. Its comprehensive statistical annex is a useful reference tool for international economic comparisons. Two special reports are included: one covers the effects of globalisation and how to maximise its benefits and minimise its adjustment costs. The second covers fiscal consolidation.

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China

Output growth moderated slightly in the second half of 2006, after a very strong first half, as the restrictive measures that were put in place in the middle of the year took effect. Despite this slowdown, growth averaged 10¾ per cent in 2006. Domestic demand is projected to accelerate as rural consumption increases and construction recovers from the administrative measures taken in 2006. Although the currency appreciated against the dollar, it depreciated in effective terms during 2006 and has only appreciated modestly in 2007. Easing of world demand and the slight appreciation of the currency is likely to result in the some easing of export growth, with only part of the acceleration of domestic demand offset by faster import growth, leaving the growth of GDP at 10.4% in 2007 and 2008. The current account surplus reached 9.5% of GDP in 2006 and is expected to continue its increase, reaching over 10½ per cent of GDP ($368 billion) by 2008. Inflation is projected to be slightly higher this year due to the acceleration in food prices, but ease to 1.5% in 2008.

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