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2006 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2006 Issue 2

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2006 Issue 2

Twice a year, the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends and examines the economic policies required to foster high and sustainable growth in member countries. Developments in major non-OECD economies are also evaluated. The present issue covers the outlook to end-2008. Together with a wide range of cross-country statistics, the Outlook provides a unique tool to keep abreast of world economic developments.

In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains a special chapter entitled Has the rise in debt made households more vulnerable?, which addresses the following questions:

  • What factors explain the observed rise in household debt in many OECD countries?
  • Have asset price movements offset the impact on households’ financial positions?
  • Are some sectors or groups particularly vulnerable to adverse asset market or income developments?

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India

The economy grew very rapidly at the beginning of fiscal year 2006,5 expanding by close to 9%, after rapid growth during the previous year. Some signs of overheating have emerged: inflation has picked up to over 6%, though food prices are in part responsible for this movement, and the current account moved into a deficit of 1.3% of GDP in fiscal year 2005 and is likely to widen somewhat in fiscal year 2006. Agricultural output may weaken slightly bringing growth down to 8% in fiscal year 2006. In 2007 and 2008, the effects of the current tightening in monetary growth should be felt, slowing growth to 7% by the end of the projection period and ensuring that inflation moderates slightly, to around 5%.

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