OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2006 Issue 2
Twice a year, the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends and examines the economic policies required to foster high and sustainable growth in member countries. Developments in major non-OECD economies are also evaluated. The present issue covers the outlook to end-2008. Together with a wide range of cross-country statistics, the Outlook provides a unique tool to keep abreast of world economic developments.
In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains a special chapter entitled Has the rise in debt made households more vulnerable?, which addresses the following questions:
- What factors explain the observed rise in household debt in many OECD countries?
- Have asset price movements offset the impact on households’ financial positions?
- Are some sectors or groups particularly vulnerable to adverse asset market or income developments?
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China
After growing very rapidly in the first half of the year, GDP slowed somewhat in the second half as fiscal and monetary policy exerted a dampening impact on activity. Nevertheless, growth in 2006 may still be around 10½ per cent. The moderate slowing is projected to continue in the first half of 2007 as export growth slackens and the impact of policy tightening is felt, but thereafter growth may pick up again, resulting in the economy growing in line with potential of somewhat more than 10% by 2008. Despite imports accelerating and exports slackening, the current account surplus is projected to rise continuously, reaching $285 billion (8.8% of GDP) by 2008. As supply increases in line with demand, inflation will remain subdued at 2% during the projection period.
Also available in: French
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